Currently ISIL, in the Caliphate illegally and heinously established in Iraq, is killing proportionately many times more Muslims than Christians. The offshoot of ISIL in Libya is more likely to be settling old political scores and grinding the faces of secular Muslim countries, since in the Caliphate the ISIL goons are extorting a tax rather than beheading Christians – for the most part. Christians living in slavery in the Caliphate is cool; suffering Muslim apostates to live is not. I note with interest that Egypt, never exactly Mr. Upstanding in protecting minority Copt rights, responded with airstrikes.
Given that ISIL’s end game is to be the prime mover in the bringing forward of Judgement Day, in glorious battle with the forces of Rome on the plains of Iraq, I hope the secular Muslim countries and NATO strap their collective wills together and squash these lunatics, with a nice leisurely war crimes trial for the survivors afterwards.
Also, and not to put to fine a point on it, without air support ISIL cannot long prosper. Best case scenario the Saudis roll their eyes, take out the Caliph using local intelligence, and go back to messing with oil prices in hopes of removing enough production from the global market to stabilize their market share. The Wahhabis and the propaganda arm of Al-Qaida hate ISIL, one for being branded apostate and one for being told they’re not being diligent enough in meeting their political ends (no Caliph, no territory, no ground troops, no hall pass with Allah).
Without multi-state sponsored military intervention, it’s likely to play out as:
ISIL expands territory and operations much farther and faster than anybody wants or will give them credit for.
Inability to provide the necessities of life due to mismanagement, sanctions and constant warfare will anger the local populations so that ISIL spends as much time, blood and treasure putting down rebellions as expanding the Caliphate (which it feels obliged by Allah to do).
Various ethnic and religious groups fight into this mess (with much handwringing and vapidity on the part of the Western military and press) and a longish multiparty 5-10 year civil war ensues. Sometime in there the Caliph goes to heaven in wee little bits.
ISIL wannabes in the West keep shooting up synagogues and malls, triggering revenge killings of Sikhs minding their own business pumping gas or shopping at Walmart, arsons at mosques and calls to ‘ship the bastards all home’ – which pains me, since I really like most the Ahmadis and Ismailis I’ve met, even if they are the worst apostates EVAR.
An uneasy peace mostly due to exhaustion, climate change (water is a huge issue for the region) and wackiness in the oil market ensues after the civil war.
A new Qurayshi Caliph is secretly unveiled to the faithful, and publicly revealed some months or years later.
Rinse, repeat.
Yeah, I’m a cynic.
