Day: August 1, 2007

Somebody accidentally forwarded this to me today, but it’s a very interesting graph.

Lead acid batteries are a big component in the systems my employer manufacturers.  When the price of something doubles in a year, it drives the price of manufactured goods depending on it in a most unpleasant way – this while customers keep expecting the price of everything to keep dropping.  Moore’s Law does not apply to lead.  I would say, based on this graph and some brief thought on the subject, that the price of lead will continue to spike and then get into a ‘tank and spike’ mode during the ‘long emergency’. Mining and manufacturing will keep throttling back in the face of demand reduction.  The price will drop, and factories will close.  Then the price will spike as the demand – there will continue to be demand – is unmet by supply.  During the ‘long emergency’ you’ll be able to expect many metals to follow this pattern.  The only thing that won’t tank and spike is food, especially cereal grains, sugars, dried fruit, cooking or industrial oils, canned or dried milk, cocoa, and any kind of canned or dried meat.  That will just keep going up.